The World Bank has forecasted that ongoing insecurity, armed conflicts, and worsening living conditions will persist in local government areas across Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states, and the northern part of Adamawa State in Nigeria until May 2024. The report highlights that challenging macroeconomic conditions are hindering access to agricultural inputs in these affected states, which is expected to impact cereal production in the country.
According to the latest ‘Food Security Update’ from the global bank, the estimated cereal production for the 2023/24 crop year in West and Central Africa is anticipated to be 76.5 million tons, reflecting a two percent decrease from the previous season but a three percent increase compared to the average of the last five years. The report identifies Chad, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria as the main contributors to this decline.
The World Bank states, “Projections indicate a reduction in production from the previous year in Chad, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. This decline is attributed to dry spells during the growing season and insecurity that limited access to cropland in Chad, Mali, and Niger, and to poor macroeconomic conditions restricting access to agricultural inputs in Nigeria.”
The report emphasizes that many areas in the sub-region will remain minimally food insecure from November to May 2024. Additionally, during this period, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions, primarily caused by persistent insecurity, armed conflicts, and deteriorating livelihoods, are expected to impact local government areas in Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states, and the far north of Adamawa state in Nigeria, as well as areas in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, and Niger.
Highlighting the economic context, the report reveals that between August and November 2023, high inflation is observed in many low and middle-income countries, with inflation rates exceeding 5 percent in 61.9 percent of low-income countries, 76.1 percent of lower-middle-income countries, 50.0 percent of upper-middle-income countries, and 57.4 percent of high-income countries. Particularly affected regions include Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe, and Central Asia.
In November, Nigeria experienced a headline inflation rate of 28.20 percent, with food inflation soaring to 32.84 percent, as reported in the document.